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by Al Martin

Kerry’s Losing Campaign - Incompetence? Or Conspiracy? (Part I)

(Sep 7) Is the fix in? Are the Democrats throwing the election?

      This is an overview of the practical reality of the election situation. First of all here’s the difference between the DNC and the RNC convention.

      The DNC convention was an “anybody but Bush” convention; it wasn’t a pro-Kerry convention. The RNC convention was a pro-Bush convention; it wasn’t an anti-Kerry convention. Why? Because they know that they have the Kerry people on the ropes. They didn’t have to attack them the way that the Kerry people had hoped. Furthermore, the whole Democratic Party’s idea in this campaign was to put up a compromise candidate (that’s, after all, what John Kerry really was) and hope to get their boy in on an anti-Bush vote.

      If that’s the kind of campaign you’re going to run, then you’ve got to go on the attack from Day One, something the Kerry people haven’t done. The attacks that the Bush people have made, both individually and through their 527 Political Action Committees have been very effective, particularly the Swift Boat commercials, which have hurt Kerry. Kerry has actually more 527's formed, with more money, than do the Bush people. However for some unknown reason, they haven’t used them yet.

      What has happened is that the Bush-Cheney campaign has been one step ahead of the Kerry people the whole time, and they suckered Kerry. Kerry doesn’t seem to understand because A) His campaign is in disarray; B) He’s got mostly young idealistic and naïve people. He hasn’t got those old-time Democratic Party hacks who know how to run a campaign.

      If you look at the makeup of the Bush-Cheney campaign and look at the legions of old-time party hacks they’ve got in there, from Bob Dole to Ed Rawlins… They pulled out every old-time Republican Party hack in the world that knows how to run a campaign.

      Kerry has gotten suckered on this issue of 527's. They hit him, and this was done on purpose. Karl Rove was smart to do it. Karl was the guy, and the Bush-Cheney people don’t deny it. Karl was the guy that was behind the swift-boat ads. Nobody’s denying that. They knew that the Swift Boat ads would hurt Kerry. They knew that Kerry wouldn’t fight back and that he wouldn’t attack George Bush because he is so frightened of the past. That has been his consistent problem -- his fear of the past. It is what has restrained him from attacking George Bush because he’s afraid to drag up the past.

      The past is Kerry’s Big Fear. It’s like this big knot of fear in the middle of the Democratic Party, and specifically of the Kerry campaign. They’re frightened of the Kerry Committee hearings and its aftermath and what happened. Why? Because they know if they attempt to attack and rehash the past or to even use information they already have that could damage George Bush, not only John Kerry, but other senior Democrats are vulnerable to attack as to how they dropped the ball during the Kerry Committee hearings and just how complicit they were during the Reagan-Bush and Bush-Quayle regimes in allowing the U.S. economy to be destroyed.

      You don’t think that the Republicans are going to bring that up in a hurry? They know that they’re pretty well insulated from it. After all, what the heck, Ronald Reagan’s dead. They know that they can protect George Bush and the Republicans can blame everything on Ronald Reagan if they have to.

      Until John Kerry loses his fear of the past and starts attacking Bush with information they already have, nothing will change. He made the mistake already. After he got hurt with these Swift Boat ads, he immediately goes out and tries to sue the individual 527 involved. Before it really got to that point, the White House itself pulled the plug on the ad. Then they go back to the Kerry Committee, then they lay out this public campaign, and Kerry stupidly lets Bush get the initiative on the 527 issue. Bush then says, “Let’s shut down all the 527's.” What a smart idea that was! And Kerry agreed. He effectively agreed because he had gotten hurt once already with the Swift Boat and didn’t want to get hurt again. So what is he doing? He said he was saving his 527 ammunition, until after the RNC convention. You may have noticed how sneakily the Bush-Cheney campaign filed an injunction against all of Kerry’s 527's in court.

      What the Bush Cheney campaign has done is they’ve outmaneuvered and suckered Kerry. They are going to render all of Kerry’s 527's useless. Remember, Kerry has more 527's and has raised more money than have the Bush 527's. The Bushes were smart enough, the Bush campaign was smart enough to use it in the beginning, sting Kerry, make Kerry fearful, then put Kerry in the corner by saying, “Let’s get rid of these 527's.”

      Now it looks like the Democrats are cutting their losses with Kerry, by assuming he’s a loser in the campaign against Bush Cheney. First of all, who wants to stick their neck out for a loser?

      What the senior Democrats and the old-time party guys thought of Kerry was -- Here’s a good compromise candidate. He’s weak. He’s not a good public speaker. He never has been. He’s timid. He won’t stick his neck out on any issues. He doesn’t have a well-coordinated campaign committee. They don’t even have a central fact and number guy there, like most campaigns would have.

      It’s not that they deliberately chose a loser. It was a huge miscalculation by the Democrats. When they started looking at the polls, particularly early summer, they saw Bush declining, Bush declining, Bush declining. They looked at polls and saw the polls that the number of Americans that now think going into Iraq was a bad idea. Suddenly it was above 50%. They saw economic numbers continuously weakening, that they thought would have a greater impact because they assumed that the American people would be more interested in economics, that Kerry could use the Clinton line, “It’s the economy, stupid.” Kerry hasn’t even been able to use that line.

      That’s one of the biggest mysteries. Part of the problem is that he doesn’t have anyone in his campaign who is an economist or a numbers guy. They’ve got no central database numbers guy like all campaigns usually have. For instance, after the Bush RNC speech, the Kerry people should have immediately been on the television, not saying, “Oh, well, gee,” like Kerry did, “I’ll put my two terms of active duty service up against Dick Cheney’s six deferments.” That’s weak. Kerry should have been attacking. And he should have said, “Here’s all the lies George Bush just told you. And here’s the names, the dates, the places, the facts, the numbers.” And he has never been prepared like that. He doesn’t have anyone to prepare him.

      It was also revealed that the Republican National Committee outsourced telephone canvassers for the Bush campaign to India. In order to reduce costs of running a campaign, they have even applied Bushonomics to the Republican campaign itself.

      Not unexpectedly there has been grumbling about this form many of the political polling organizations that normally have contracts, old Republican firms in Virginia that normally benefit from a political campaign. What the Bush-Cheney people have said is -- Oh, no. Bushonomics -- we’re carrying that onto the campaign. If you’re not a defense contractor or a pill pusher (pharmaceutical company), you will be outsourced offshore.

      I wonder how many Republicans and how many Farmer Joes and Ethels in Kansas know that the Republican canvasser calling them ain’t in Washington – but he’s in Bombay? It’s not Wally in Washingron, but Betty in Bombay, fresh from her accent reduction training, asking you to vote for George Bush.

      So the Kerry campaign is a mystery. I don’t think that’s the attitude on the Kerry side of the equation. They still want to win. The problem is that they’re doing it without any organization, or old party hacks who are used to playing dirty politics, and without anybody with any experience in running a national campaign and without having a numbers guy to get John Kerry prepared. Look at every speech that Kerry gives. You will see than in the speeches he’s given, or in the appearances that are in response to something Bush has said, he’s never prepared.

      Look at how Bush was prepared. “Here’s the numbers.” Now, the numbers were all lies. But the American people don’t care whether the numbers are lies; they just hear the numbers.

      And Kerry’s response to the unemployment numbers? Well, they’re not all that they seem–because the unemployment, this was a big report today. And it came out pretty well in line with expectation. But the masthead numbers looked pretty strong: Unemployment rate was down another 1/10 of 1%, to 5.4%. Now, of course, the reason why the unemployment rate was down was because 167,000 people, long-term unemployed, were shifted and taken off the books. But the Kerry people have got to be out there saying this stuff. CNBC and Larry Kudlow had every Republican spin-meister, and they will have them on all day long. Their spin will be picked up by mainstream media tonight and tomorrow. And the Democrats are saying -- Oh, well, the numbers weren’t all that they seemed to be. That’s what John Kerry says. But he doesn’t tell anyone what the numbers are.

      So what is the punch line of this Kerry campaign?

      This is something that needs to be said. I and others like me, that Kerry used and abused during the Kerry Committee hearings, were offered protection from Democrats in the past, from the Bushonian kick in the knee during the long series of Iran-Contra, IraqGate and all the Democratically controlled investigative hearings from 1987 to 1992.

      Assurances and promises were made consistently by the Clinton peope. Now I find out, after talking with people that there are people out there that have been resisting Republican envelopes. You might ask - why would they do that? To attack Kerry on this very subject.

      Look at what a powerful representation it is to hit Kerry with, particularly where the Bush-Cheney regime has made it sound like this guy’s two terms in Vietnam are meaningless and that Kerry had self-inflicted wounds. More than half the people believed what the swift boat veterans said. And this is where the Bush-Cheney regime is very strong -- playing the military card. In other words, we the Bushonian Republicans support the military and we support the war on terrorism.

      It’s come to my attention that people involved in the Iran Contra are actually refusing their “envelopes.”

      And why would people be refusing their envelope of monies owed or promised to them by the government? Because they’re desperately hoping that the Democrats will live up to their promises. And it ain’t happening.

      I didn’t think this would happen because the Republican side of the equation could be hurt since it would again drag up the past. The Bush-Cheney campaign has such superb control of the media, so they have all of their skeletons locked away in the closets, and, boy, they’ve got dead bolts on them and they know it.

      They could actually gerrymander my situation for instance. It could come out and keep Oliver North and George Bush clean. They don’t have to raise Iran-Contra all over again.

      What they’d do is they’d march out guys like me to say, “Here’s military veterans that fought for our country.” You know what a powerful representation that can make?

      Or instead of marching people like me out, they could get people like us to say something on our own independently and to make it appear that we’re on our own.

      What these people believe is that A) they are like me -- leery of the Republicans, obviously, and B) what they hope is what others have hoped because that was the word that was initially put out from the Kerry Committee at very top levels.

      It came to my attorney too. The word was put out: “We’ll take Kerry if our boy gets in office.” Now, we heard that once before from Bill Clinton, who pulled the rug out from under us

      So why would these people believe this story a second time? Because these people, even me, are intimidated by Republican power. Therefore we are reticent. If, however, somebody comes along and puts out the word around George Bush saying - hey, we know you got screwed in the past but we’re willing to make good, and here’s something to prove it. What a powerful representation it can be. It’s a twofold incentive. Because he knows that people like me will come out of the woodwork in the next couple of weeks anyway. Because we know that Kerry ain’t going to be elected. So we want to strike whilst there’s still something there to strike at.

      They have been one step ahead of the Kerry Committee in this entire, not just the Kerry campaign. They have been one step ahead. They have actually orchestrated the script for this entire Presidential election season and campaign. What the Bush people know is that people like me are going to come out of the woodwork anyway because we perceive the same thing that they perceive -- that Kerry is a loser. Therefore we’re going to want to get in our licks whilst it’s still worthwhile. The long and short of it is that Kerry could be hurt terribly by this. Kerry has to act independently, independent of the Clinton people, to repair the damage that Clinton did when he yanked the rug out from everyone in the `92 campaign.

      Clinton did it because of his exposure to the so-called “Mena” issue, i.e. CIA narcotics trafficking in Arkansas, while Clinton was governor.

      With Kerry the Democrats are trying to cut their losses. They are distancing themselves from John Kerry, the compromise candidate. They fronted him because he was the cleanest guy they could think of to front. And what they thought ain’t happening, that they could just sweep this guy in, a guy that’s not a good public speaker, that doesn’t have any real campaign organization--that they could just sweep this guy in on an anti-Bush tide. What they don’t realize is that you’ve got to push that tide. You just can’t sit there and do nothing, like this Kerry campaign.

      Is it by design? Unless I’m wrong, this would imply a degree of competence, which the Kerry campaign certainly doesn’t have. Perhaps there are Democrats or some structure behind the Kerry campaign.

      The only logical answer to any of this, if you want to say the Democrats have any degree of competence, would be that they were purposely waiting until after the RNC, waiting for the Bush bounce to happen and then dissipate, which happens very quickly, then go on the attack and launch a final 10-week concerted attack that had been well-coordinated with all the numbers and facts right there.

      If this prediction doesn’t come true, then, obviously, they’re not competent.

      Then there’s another question. When two members of the secret society of the Order of Skull and Bones (George Bush and John Kerry) are running for the office of President of the United States, is one of them told to take a dive?

      Is the designated loser “supposed” to be John Kerry?

      The question remains: Is Kerry’s Losing Campaign just incompetence or is it a calculated conspiracy?

      (Next Week: Kerry’s Losing Campaign - Incompetence or Conspiracy? Part 2; Pat Buchanan, Write-In Candidate for the Republicans?)

      [Don’t miss a single column by political-economic analyst Al Martin, author of “The Conspirators: Secrets of an Iran Contra Insider.” Subscribe now by logging on to Al Martin Raw. com: Political, Economic and Financial Intelligence. Go to http://www.almartinraw.com or click here]

    * AL MARTIN is an independent economic-political analyst with 25 years of experience as a trader on NYMEX, CME, CBOT and CFTC. As a former contributor to the Presidential Council of Economic Advisors, Al Martin is considered to be a source of independent analysis for financially sophisticated and market savvy investors.

After working as a broker on Wall Street, Al Martin was involved in the so-called "Iran Contra" Affair as a fundraiser for the Bush Cabal from the covert side of government aka the US Shadow Government.

His memoir, "The Conspirators: Secrets of an Iran Contra Insider," (http://www.almartinraw.com) provides an unprecedented look at the frauds of the Bush Cabal during the Iran Contra era. His weekly column, "Behind the Scenes in the Beltway," is published weekly on Al Martin Raw.com, which also publishes a bimonthly newsletter called "Whistleblower Gazette."

Al Martin's new website "Insider Intelligence" (http://www.insiderintelligence.com) will provide a long term macro-view of world markets and how they are affected by backroom realpolitik.



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